WATER SECURITY OF CENTRAL ASIA AND THE DEBATE ON DIVERTING PART OF THE FLOW OF SIBERIAN RIVERS: ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS

Abstract

The article examines the problem of water security in Central Asia in the context of a growing water deficit and the renewed debate over the possible interbasin diversion of part of the flow of Siberian rivers. It analyzes the historical background of this idea, the current state of expert discussions, and the main arguments of the opposing sides. Particular attention is paid to environmental risks associated with a potential reduction in river runoff to the Arctic basin and the transformation of ecosystems in Western Siberia, including the estuarine areas of the Kara Sea and regions of intensive oil extraction. It is shown that with moderate diversion volumes of 5 to 10 km³ per year the impact on global climatic and oceanographic processes is likely to be limited, although local ecosystem consequences require detailed modeling and assessment. The economic section considers modern technological options for water transport, possible reductions in energy and operating costs compared with Soviet-era projects, and the need to account comprehensively for environmental costs.